US colleges face ‘perfect storm’ on international recruitment

US universities have been relying on their reputation alone to attract international students and now risk a “perfect storm” of problems, the head of an international education association has warned.

The continuing campus unrest over Gaza looks set to be an issue in November’s US presidential election, and the result could have serious ramifications for immigration policies and international student flows.

Previous research has shown that foreign students’ perception of the US improved after Joe Biden ousted Donald Trump from the White House in 2020, but Fanta Aw, the executive director and chief executive of Nafsa, the Association of International Educators, said both universities and organisations such as hers had to be ready to work with either Mr Biden or Mr Trump, both of whom are running again.

She said US institutions would be thinking about the “moment of inflection” they have found themselves in, amid increased competition from rivals that have become more strategically aggressive.

A recent report by the National Foundation for American Policy found that international student enrolment to the US had dropped by 6 per cent between 2016 and 2019 while it rose by 52 per cent in Canada. Meanwhile, analysis by Times Higher Education revealed that students from the Gulf region are turning away from study in North America and heading to the UK and Australia instead.

Dr Aw, who was previously an academic at American University, said she hoped to provide a “wake-up call” for US colleges, which have been “relying on their reputation to carry the day” rather than actively recruiting students.

“It’s the perfect storm that can put US higher education in crisis unless it decides to operate differently, and one [key to that] is understanding what role international students play in the higher education ecosystem,” she added.

“The idea that we’ve always had students come to us and we don’t have to worry about it is simply no longer sustainable.”

Dr Aw encouraged US universities to consider recruiting more actively, particularly because of the benefits that international students are known to bring to campuses.

With US study visa refusals hitting record levels in 2023 and more than 250,000 foreign students turned away from courses, Dr Aw acknowledged that this was a “major issue” facing the sector.

As potential students from key growth markets in the Global South received the most rejections, she said it was vitally important that there was greater alignment between demand and refusals.

For years, Nafsa has warned the sector against treating international students as “cash cows”, and Dr Aw said institutions were now slowly realising that international students were “very savvy consumers”.

“Any institution that is serious about growing its presence requires an ecosystem approach that takes into consideration the breadth and depth of what international students are seeking,” she added.

“They’re really looking at the quality of education they’re going to get, the overall experience on campuses and then paying particular attention to the outcomes of their institution.”

Prospective students will also have been paying much attention to the continuing disruption on US campuses over Israel’s invasion of Gaza, and will be concerned by the tensions on display between activists and administrators, she added.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com